There are several possible scenarios for the development of the NCS. This is illustrated on the enclosed figure. Given the
lower curve, production would seriously decline from 2020. This trend would illustrate a situation where the industry and
the authorities are satisfied with the technology development path as it has been so far. This would ensure that oil and gas
activities are phased out relatively quickly. The higher development curve implies the bringing to fruition of profitable
projects that would entail the production of oil for at least 50 more years and gas for another 100 years.
The long-term development scenario is within reach if co-ordinated efforts are made to achieve efficient exploitation of the
resource base and if the oil and gas industry, along with the authorities, join forces to develop the petroleum resources
in a cost-effective manner.
